All we want to learn about the correctness of the world around us, but in this process sought the lot of traps. Discovery of fictitious correlation is one of them. In nature, in everyday life, whether in business on a daily encounter with the idea of correlation. For example, the higher the oak, the trunk has a diameter larger. This is an example of positive correlation. In turn, the higher the position one holds, the less of a physical. Is an example of negative correlation. However, world that surrounds us, is largely filled by a random event, and only certain phenomena are cause and effect, or in some other way correlated with each other. For this reason, it is very difficult indeed to distinguish between the phenomenon of self-dependent phenomena, commonly occurring on the case. As noted in various places in the world, combining a specific president or prime minister with strong economic growth may be extremely coincidental. Before we decide on the termination of a court the relationship between the two events, and we will carefully consider whether committed one of the three types of errors.
The error lies in the first (too small sample) the apparent correlation of events completely independent of each other. Forgetfulness is the second error on a possible common factor linking the observed phenomena, seemingly only directly dependent of each other. Error third to find the true correlation, however, devoid of meaning when it comes to explain the events taking place. Looking for the correlation between independent events, with a very small number of observed cases, is often referred to as magical thinking. None of us do not like the accidental nature. We would like to explain everything in terms of cause-effect. And if we can not do this, capture the apparent translation. It is better to feel with them. If, after leaving the home encounter a black cat, and a few hours later pour on the red borscht on the official adoption and the creation of our mind in a strong correlation between these events. We know from a number of transfers that a black cat brings bad luck. When the transition is sometimes the way a black cat, and then ... nothing happens, do not convince us to change this opinion. At other times, noted that the more fire-fighting units is involved in extinguishing the fire, the greater are the losses. Sun noted that the factor linking these observations, it was the size of the fire. The major research while the positive relationship between teeth, and subsequent morbidity of humans to cancer. It appeared, however, that the third factor was the development of cultural societies, using and associated increased length of life of citizens. In communities where the fluorine is not used, the level of development was so low that people died in a very early age to other disorders than cancer. |